Simulation Results

Republicans win a supermajority 58 times out of 100

Democrats break the supermajority 42 times out of 100

Here are the seat distributions predicted by the model. Republicans have a 100 percent chance of winning the House, and a 57.69 percent chance of maintaining their supermajority (14,423  simulations out of 25,000). The forecast predicts Democrats win 40.78 (41) seats, one seat shy of the number required to break the supermajority.

Battleground Races and the Tipping Point Seat

Here we can see all eighteen districts that the model suggests is "competitive." These are the districts rated Lean R through Lean D, with a few of the most competitive Likely districts. Their projected margin as well as a 95% range of outcomes are shown to illustrate how close and uncertain these elections truly are. For example, Dennis Miller is projected to win by 0.55pts, but it is entirely believable that he could win or lose by 5pts. Of course those outcomes are on the extreme ends of the spectrum, but several of these races are true tossups and this chart illustrates that.

Also listed is the "Tipping Point Chance" value predicted by the model. The tipping point seat is the seat that "tips" the overall outcome of the election, which in this case, is Democrats winning 42 seats and breaking the Republican supermajority. The percent chance is essentially "how likely is this race to be the 42nd most Democratic district?" This does not mean that Democrats won the seat, however. For example, Democrats could win 41 seats but lose the 33rd district. If HD33 was the next most-Democratic district, it was the tipping point seat that Dems needed to win in order to "win the election." In 2022, the House tipping point seat was HD30 won by Laura Williams by 1.58pts. This data also does not imply any odds that winning said seat means X percent chance of winning the election. I am working on calculating that next.