A favorite map style of mine, here we see the 2022 KS gubernatorial election through the absolute vote margin by precinct.

This shows us where each candidate got their volume of support by taking into account margin and total votes. Brighter precincts mean more votes.

Kelly, unsurprisingly, got her support in metropolitan areas, with deep votes in central Wichita, JoCo, and Lawrence, and smaller margins in Topeka and WyCo. Schmidt picked up votes in outer Sedgwick County and through sheer size of rural Kansas.

A benefit of this map style is that it does not treat all percent margins equal. An R+40 precinct with 50 votes is less effective in support than an R+40 precinct with 500 votes. This map ignores percentages to show you where candidates are actually getting votes.

In 2022, Vicki Schmidt was the strongest Republican candidate for statewide office, winning reelection to the office of Commissioner of Insurance by 26 points over Democrat Kiel Corkran. 

Jerry Moran, the relatively popular incumbent GOP Senator also put together an impressive performance, defeating former Kansas City, Kansas Mayor Mark Holland by 23 points. 

Mapping V. Schmidt's performance compared to Moran's reveals some interesting information about her coalition, and why she might be the strongest GOP candidate for Governor in 2026.

Moran did not have any clear strong areas in this map. He sees his best voting numbers in rural Kansas, likely due to his former service as the Representative for the Western Kansas KS-01 district in the US House. However, V. Schmidt still out performed Moran as she won the current KS-01 by 40.2 points compared to Moran's 38.9 points. 

If we use the 2003-2012 district boundaries (the boundaries when Moran was the representative), Moran won by 58.3 points compared to V. Schmidt's 58 points, barely outperforming her. Moran clearly does not have a rural advantage. 

He did well in some small towns scattered throughout the state, potentially showing a stronger appeal to white working-class voters, but that advantage would be minimal. Moran might have a stronger appeal to black voters, as he outperformed V. Schmidt in some Wichita and Wyandotte County precincts with significant black populations. Again, this advantage is minimal.

Vicki Schmidt, on the other hand, has clear coalitions that gave her such a strong result. V. Schmidt is a Topeka-native, as evident by her clear strength in Shawnee County. She was also stronger in suburban areas such as Wichita/Sedgwick County and Johnson County. I would likely attribute this to suburban women who are more likely to vote for a "more" moderate Republican for an unknown office. 

If Republicans want the best chance of retaking the Governor's office in 2026, Vicki Schmidt is clearly a good candidate to consider.