We don’t need to go in depth on every Likely district, but if it’s Likely R, it was probably a Trump-Kelly district. Likely D usually translates to a Biden-Moran (or barely Holland) seat. There are 12 Likely R seats, HD3, 8, 41, 52, 60, 65, 85, 87, 96, 105, 117, and 121. HD60 is the only Biden-won district, and the only one worth discussing here. Incumbent Mark Shreiber is in a Biden+0.4, Kelly+21 district, but is extremely popular in his district. He is considered one of the last remaining “moderate Republicans” in the House, and breaks with the GOP on many issues. As long as he continues surviving conservative challengers, he will serve for as long as he desires. The forecast predicts him to win by a little less than six points, but I honestly expect him to win by over 10. HD8 is one I’d consider to be on “upset alert” this cycle, but might not be competitive for a few more years. The Olathe-based seat is rapidly growing in population and trending left on a national level quicker than the rest of the state. If Dems had proper funding and no incumbent to run against, I could see this upset happening, but right now, a Democrat winning is about as likely as being left-handed. 

There are three Likely D districts, HD20, 53, and 56. I considered HD56 to be a dark horse seat for the Republicans, a surprising pickup opportunity for the GOP, but they are not contesting this seat, at least not seriously. Incumbent Virgil Weigel (D) raised less than $15k, but Republican challenger Pennie Boyer-Kloos raised less than $5k. Outside spending showed alarm bells, with Democratic groups spending almost $50k on Weigel’s campaign, but Boyer-Kloos only received $35k. I think this could be a surprisingly close seat on election night, but all three Likely D seats should fall in place pretty easily. The Likely seats brings us to 78R-34D.

6 districts fall into the Lean category, three for each party. We’ll go over these briefly, starting with the Lean R seats. HD33 is the first Lean R seat. This seat has been in the Tossup category most of the cycle, but continued to fall into GOP hands as the campaigns played out. Incumbent Mike Thompson (R) is a popular incumbent, uncontroversial, and in a Trump+1 district. He nearly doubled challenger Eli Woody’s (D) fundraising with $40k, and is also receiving $67k in outside funding. Woody received less than $25k. Analyzing campaign expenditures also shows Thompson with a stronger ground game. This was probably the Democrats weakest campaign performance in the state despite having a very good recruitment cycle. HD78 is the next Lean R district. There’s less to talk about here, Trump +3.5 and Kelly +8.4. Much stronger fundraising for the Republicans including $60k in outside Republican spending to only $7k for the Democrat. Count this one for the Republicans pretty easily. 

The final Lean R seat is HD102. This is my personal house district, and I could talk for hours on this, but I’ll try to keep it brief. Incumbent Jason Probst (D) is the last Democratic legislator west of Wichita. He is arguably the strongest candidate of any party in the state, winning in 2020 despite Trump winning his district by nearly 15 points. Kelly did win by 10, but Probst does not have a third party candidate helping him take away disaffected Republicans who refuse to vote for a Democrat. Probst outraised his Republican challenger Kyler Sweely $75k to $12.5k. Probst outspent Sweely $57k to $2k. If this was all the info I had, I’d call it for Probst. But that’s not all Probst has going for him. Sweely has many controversies behind him. Most recently, a video surfaced on the web of Sweely jumping on top of an unconscious woman in bed. The woman involved dismissed claims of assault and Democrats and newspapers have not run with the story much since. More impactfully, Sweely has been accused of carpetbagging by both Democrats and Republicans alike. This Hutchinson seat is the center of the Reno County GOP civil war. Establishment conservative Republicans supported Sweely in the primary, and defeated the more libertarian conservative candidate. The “Libertarian” side of the party filed suit before the primary to remove Sweely’s name. Sweely was allowed to remain on the ballot as he leased a Hutchinson property three days before filing for office, thus fulfilling the residency requirement. Carpetbagging is one of few attacks that universally have an impact on a race, and it could definitely be enough to push Probst over the line. It also highlights a division in the Republican Party. I’m hearing from people on the ground that some Republicans are asking others not to vote in this election to punish Sweely and the state party for supporting him. All politics is local, as they say. 

Probst is extremely popular and a fantastic campaigner. He knows what he needs to do to win. The forecast, however, doesn’t like his odds due to the sheer ground he must make up in the base partisanship. He also suffers from dark money, as Sweely received well over $100k in outside funding compared to Probst’s $20k. The fact that Democratic-aligned organizations are not spending on Probst means they are either confident in him, or willing to sacrifice him to the wolves. I tend to believe Probst is being sacrificed. Money is just better well spent in Johnson County instead of Hutchinson. I truly think my forecast underrates Probst, giving him a 23.5 percent chance of winning. I think he is around 40 percent and in Tilt R territory, but at the end of the day, I think he has too much ground to make up to win. I would not be surprised at all if I see Probst win on November 5th, but it is quite unlikely, about as likely as flopping a pair in Texas Hold’em.

The three Lean D seats are a bit less interesting, but more meaningful for Dems. First is HD48 where incumbent Dan Osman (D) is trying to hold on. It’s imperative he wins, as losing this seat alone reduces Dem odds of breaking the supermajority to 10 percent or so. It’s a Biden +6.7 and Kelly +18 seat. Osman is outraising his challenger Randy Ross (R) $34k to $21k, and Osmon received $34k in outside funding to Ross’ $0. The forecast says 70% chance of Osman retaining, and I agree. Next is HD67, which I have been told the forecast is far more bullish on Dems than people think it should be. It has a 77 percent chance of Democrats flipping this seat. Biden +6.5 and Kelly +24 make me confident in a steady Democratic victory. This Manhattan seat saw an over 2x fundraising advantage for Dems, and outside spending barely favors the Republicans. Not a lot of money and a strong base partisanship keeps this in the Democratic column. Lastly is HD95, held by Minority Leader Tom Sawyer (D). This was another “dark horse” seat ripe for an upset as it’s only a Biden +2.2 seat, but Sawyer outraised his Republican challenger Christopher Parisho $28k to a whopping $334. Parisho got no outside funding. Similarly to HD33 for Dems, this seems like the biggest missed opportunity for Republicans, to not only contest a pretty competitive seat, but also try to embarrass the Democratic Party by defeating one of its top leaders. Reminder, the magic number for Republicans is 84 and for Democrats is 42. Add this one to the Dems and we get up to 81R-37D. 

We’ve got two Tilt seats to discuss, one for each party. The Tilt R race is HD39, where incumbent Angela Stiens (R) is trying to hold on against challenger Vanessa Vaughn West (D). Stiens was appointed to the seat this session, so she does not get a big incumbency advantage. West ran for this seat in 2022, and lost by two points, or 205 votes, against a two-term incumbent. The district is Trump +2.6, down from Trump +11.6 in 2016. Kelly won the 39th by 11 points. Both candidates raised similar amounts, but West has a more robust spending report showing a nice ground game. West also has $25k in her bank account where Stiens has less than $5k. Stiens is receiving $130k in outside support, while West is also around $130k. The strong ground game of West is promising for Dems, coupled with the fact that Stiens is somewhat unpopular from her time on the Shawnee City Council. I honestly think this seat comes down to how Kamala Harris performs in the presidential election. If she overperforms my expectation of Trump +15, I think West flips this seat more often than not. If the state is around the Trump +15 mark, I think Stiens holds on. 

- Note: The following paragraph was added at 6pm CST on Monday, November 4th -

After reviewing Last Minute Contributions made by PACs and the campaigns, I'm moving HD39 to the Democratic column. If I believe this district is a tossup dependent on a Trump +15 environment, but West is getting and spending more money in the final week, I have to give her the nod. I may regret making this change tomorrow night, but the signs show a much stronger final push for Democrats here than Republicans. I also cannot deny that late polling shows Harris pulling ahead of my expected margin, and HD39 is the first district to flip on that assumption. Mark HD39 for Vanessa Vaughn West and the Democrats.

Staying in Johnson County, HD49 is Tilt D, but well within the range at a 66.87% chance of incumbent Nikki McDonald (D) retaining her seat against challenger Kurtis Ruf (R). The 49th is Biden +3.4 and Kelly +14. McDonald has a strong incumbency advantage, and a good ground game. She outraised Ruf $39k to $16k, and outspent him $67k to $8k. This is huge in our forecast, as the fundraising factor is not very impactful overall, unless one candidate is not spending. Ruf does have over $110k coming in from outside donors, but McDonald also has $50k keeping her in front of Ruf in spending. Even though Ruf has spenders on his behalf, the forecast still docks him points because outside expenditures usually come in hands-off methods. Digital advertising, texting, calling, mailers, etc. These do little to change votes. They are good for name recognition sure, but $15k is more than enough to build name recognition, any more is wasteful. When a campaign spends money, that money goes to palm cards or food which shows a robust ground game. McDonald’s finance report doesn’t show the strongest ground game in the state, but I find it miles ahead of Ruf’s. Ultimately, Ruf hasn’t done enough to overcome the slight partisanship disadvantage he is facing. This seat should go to Democrats. 

This puts us at 81R-39D with five tossups to go. Republicans and Democrats must each win three. Let’s go through each individually. 

HD88 is a fascinating district to study. Since the 2012 redistricting process, no incumbent has won reelection in the 88th when facing a challenger. The 2012, 2014, 2016, and 2022 elections all saw this seat flip parties. 2018 and 2020 had no GOP candidate on the ballot. This year’s incumbent is Sandy Pickert (R). This alone gives some justification for giving the nod to challenger Veronica Gillette (D). Gillette herself has an interesting story, shockingly defeating former Representative Chuck Schmidt in the primary. Schmidt was the incumbent who lost in 2022. At its core, the district is Biden +3.6 and Kelly +14. The forecast should obviously be giving this district to Democrats, right? Well for starters, Pickert only won in 2022 by 114 votes. Funding reports also complicate things a bit. This is the only competitive district in which the Democrat did not outraise or outspend their opponent. Pickert brought in $40k to Gillettes $33k. Pickert also outspent Gillette $30k to $23k. Outside money heavily favored Pickert $120k to $80k. The expenditure reports also show Pickert with a strong ground game. On the other hand, Gillette herself is an example that money doesn’t mean everything. She had 10x less money than Schmidt during the primary, but her ground game was strong and she won handedly. On a subjective and personal level, I do think Gillette is a strong candidate. She has the partisanship and candidate quality in her favor, but Pickert is also working extremely hard to retain her seat. The forecast says Pickert wins with a less than one point margin, a 54 percent chance of winning. I am very tempted to go against the forecast here, but this is probably the hardest race to pick. Can Pickert break the incumbency curse? Only time will tell, but for now… I have to go with the forecast and give the win to Pickert. 

HD14 and HD15 are very similar and can be grouped together. The 14th and 15th are held by Democrats Dennis Miller and Allison Hougland, respectively. Biden won the 14th by 0.6 but lost the 15th by 1.1. Laura Kelly won them both by at least 10 points. They were both double-digit Trump districts in 2016, but shifted strongly and will certainly be won by Harris. The 14th is quite a bit whiter, which could actually bode well for Dems as Harris appears to be making inroads with white voters. The 15th appears to be tougher for Dems, but Hougland is doing her best, raising more than all four candidates. She outraised her challenger Lauren Bohi (R) $30k to $14k, and outspent her $36k to $4k. Miller outraised his opponent (and 2022 loser) Charlotte Esau (R) $21k to $11k and outspent her $18k to $15k. Outside money is dominating these districts, with Miller bringing in $40k and Esau receiving a whopping $110k. Hougland similarly only received $30k spent on her behalf, but Bohi also surpassed $100k spent on her behalf. This is quite worrying for Dems to see this large of a funding disparity on such a large scale. The fundamentals support the incumbent Democrats here, and base partisanship is constantly moving in their favor. I’m comfortable calling both of these seats for the Democrats. 

That puts us at 82R-41D with two seats left. Democrats need only one

In 2022, HD28 was the closest seat in the state, with incumbent Republican Carl Turner winning by only 60 votes. The loser, Ace Allen (D), essentially immediately restarted his campaign, and has been working ever since to flip this Johnson County seat for Democrats. Biden won this district by 3.8 and Kelly won it by 13. Turner is clearly not the strongest incumbent, only outrunning presidential lines by four points. In 2020 before redistricting, Turner outran Trump by 12 points, so he is losing his electability in the increasingly Democratic district. Allen raised big money on his own. At the beginning of August he had over $80k, raised $42k more, and spent $80k. Turner only had $35k, raised $40k, and spent $42k. Outside money was better for Turner, with Republicans funneling $142k into the race, while Allen only got just under $100k spent on his behalf. Both candidates are exhibiting a relatively strong ground game, but I might give Allen the edge here because he never really stopped campaigning after 2022. Equal money, equal ground game, but a slightly more Democratic district that is moving left every cycle bodes well for Allen. This is a great flip opportunity for Dems. Mark it for them.

HD30 is the most pure tossup, according to the forecast. It’s a 50.38 percent chance of the preferred candidate winning, which is basically random. It’s easy to see why the forecast is 50-50 when we look at some of the fundamentals. Biden won this district by 2.6. Factoring in down ballot lag, that’s basically a 50/50 partisanship. Moran won by six and Kelly won by 15. It’s yet another Johnson County district shifting rapidly to the left, as Trump won it in 2016 by almost 10 points. In financial news, both campaigns spent around $45k, and the both received around $100k in outside funding. Incumbent Laura Williams (R) only won this district in 2022 by 1.6 points, or 140 votes. Quite literally, this district is about as 50/50 as it gets. Challenger Betsey Lasister (D) is a teacher, union family, attorney, and local advocate, otherwise known as a great candidate. Both campaigns seem to be running strong campaigns on the ground. I genuinely don’t know how I should call this election. The forecast says to go with Williams, but by the teeniest of tiny hairs. And overall it gives odds to Republicans to hold the supermajority. This gives me an easy out to give it to the GOP. But my gut says Lasister wins. I might as well flip a coin. In fact, that is exactly what I will do. If the forecast says it's a coin flip then I might as well use one. If I get this right I will not take credit for it. 

Heads its Williams (R) - Tails its Lasister (D)

...

I got tails. I’m giving this seat to Lasister

 - That gives us 82R-43D. I officially predict that Dems break the supermajority - 

Scenarios

With some early voting and recent polling data threatening to shake things up a bit in Kansas, I wanted to provide a few scenarios to see how the forecast would react if I was wrong in my assumption on base partisanship (Trump +15). Early voting shows an unusually high GOP turnout. Not just in Kansas, but across the entire country. This leads me to believe two explanations are possible: First, Republicans are going to maintain normal Election Day turnout and just have extremely high turnout this election. Second, Republicans are shifting to vote early, meaning they “cannibalize” their Election Day vote, and won’t overwhelm Democrats at the polls on Tuesday like they usually do. I tend to believe the latter is true. We know from the Secretary of State reports that a higher portion of 2024 Republican early voters voted on Election Day in 2022 (~32 percent compared to ~22 percent of Democrats). Combined with Harris’ polling gains with white voters, women, and the elderly, that might turn out the more moderate Republicans early, reducing the number of GOP voters on Election Day.

Also, while I was writing this article (and nearly done, might I add) the Holy Grail of polls was released. Ann Selzer released her poll showing Kamala Harris winning Iowa by 3 points. This is certainly not going to be the final result of Iowa, but what it does do is give credibility to the Kansas Speaks Survey showing Trump ahead by only five points in Kansas. It also supports Nebraska and NE-2 polling showing a five point leftward shift in Nebraska, which is demographically similar to Kansas. It definitely seems possible that Kansas is on track to be much bluer than I anticipated, so I added a scenario exploring the Trump +5 world. 

Have fun exploring these scenarios. I did not write any commentary on them as I already wrote 5,000 words for this and I think it would be fun for you to explore the differences in the maps, identify trends, and make up your own explanations.