HD-35 Dem

Background

By far the most competitive primary of any party in the House, incumbent Democrat Representative Marvin Robinson II is facing three challengers, business consultant Kimberly DeWitt, KCK School Board Member Wanda Brownlee Paige, and local activist Michelle Watley. 

Robinson has faced immense criticism from Democrats for often siding with Republicans in the legislature, voting to override Democratic Governor Laura Kelly’s veto almost 30 times last session (10 of which as the deciding vote). He has broken with the party to join Republicans in banning trans women from competing in women's sports, creating voucher programs diverting public tax dollars to private schools, reduce access to food assistance, prevent the expansion of Medicaid, forbid medical marijuana, create a flat income tax, and was in favor of several anti-abortion laws.

Robinson’s campaign has focused on his accomplishments for his district, saying there “isn’t a vote I regret” in the statehouse. All three challengers attack his record alongside providing their own vision for HD-35. They point out his hypocrisy from his 2022 campaign and his willingness to trade benefits for his constituents to restore a historic park that he has worked to restore and promote for decades. None of the three challengers stand out in their own right on policy as they all seem to promote the standard Democratic platform. 

District Information

House District 35 covers the NE corner of Wyandotte County. There is no Republican or 3rd party in this election; the winner of the four-way primary will win the election. 

There are just over 13,000 registered voters in the district, with 7,300 (56 percent) registered Democrats. 4,400 unaffiliated voters will have the opportunity to register with the Democratic Party to vote in this election. 

HD-35 voted for Biden in 2020 by 62pts and for Kelly in 2022 by 67pts. 

Endorsements

Marvin S. Robinson III: Kansas Farm Bureau - National Federation of Independent Business - Kansas Livestock Association - Kansas Rifle Association (NRA) - Kansas Chamber PAC

Kimberly DeWitt: Mainstream Coalition - Kansas National Educators Association

Wanda Brownlee Paige: Middle of the Road PAC - United Auto Workers - International Brotherhood of Electrical Workers - Tri-County Labor Council - International Association of Fire Fighters - Gun Sense Voter

Michelle Watley: Planned Parenthood Great Plains

Financials

The challengers have not raised a particularly impressive amount of money to win this seat, combining for $18,000 raised and $15,000 spent. Wanda Brownlee Paige raised the most money, nearly $10,000, and a significant portion of that came from labor organizations in her district. She has spent $8,700 on her campaign, nearly twice as much as the next challenger. In a Last Minute Contribution filing, Paige indicated an additional $2,000 in major contributions. Middle of the Road PAC spent an additional $9,000 in support of Paige in the primary.

Michelle Watley raised the next largest amount at $6,600, spending nearly $5,000 of that. $2,500 was loaned from herself, and approximately 23 percent of her funds were donated from individuals with out-of-state addresses. Kimberly DeWitt raised the least of the challengers, bringing in only $1,600 and spending $1,400. She loaned herself 10 percent of her funds and had no significant expenditures. 

Marvin Robinson II entered the year with almost a quarter of what his opponents raised altogether, $4,400. Robinson’s finance data has not been released at the time of writing. This profile will be expanded on when numbers are made available. 

Robinson also has the backing of the (traditionally Republican-supporting) Kansas Chamber PAC. The Chamber is spending $3,000 in support of Robinson.

Prediction

This is a terribly difficult prediction to make, so here is my process of elimination. The challengers did not coalesce behind one candidate, likely splitting most of the anti-Robinson vote. Further, articles indicate that Robinson’s constituents are not that dissatisfied with his voting record. This means the party is his largest opposition, but their campaign arms and PAC allies have not been spending on this race to oust the embattled Representative. Kimberly DeWitt has raised the least amount of money, spent the least on literature (indicating a smaller ground game), and does not have many notable endorsements, therefore she is eliminated. Next is Michelle Watley, who did raise a decent amount, but much of that money came from herself and out of state donors, indicating small grassroots support from within the district, therefore she is next out. I think it is a coin flip between Robinson and Paige, but due to the lack of unity behind the opposition and outside funding advantage, I have to give the victory to Robinson. 

It is worthy of note that we have empirical evidence that money does not translate to votes, and that even unknown individuals can oust relatively popular incumbents by having a strong ground game. Aaron Coleman raised a third of seven-term incumbent Stan Frownfelter in 2020, and spent one-sixth of the incumbent. Coleman notably knocked on practically every Democratic door in the district several times over. Coleman defeated Frownfelter by 14 votes. Wanda Brownlee Paige has the name recognition and support from labor organizations to pull off (what I would deem) an upset. I doubt Robinson gets more than 50 percent of the vote, but if he gets more than 35 percent of the vote, he has likely won due to ticket splitting.