SD-1 GOP

Background

In the most expensive Kansas Senate primary this cycle, incumbent Senator Dennis Pyle is facing two challengers, HD-63 Representative John Eplee and Craig Bowser, a Republican party leader. Pyle has been representing this district since 2005. Pyle drew the ire of fellow Republicans in 2022 when he ran as a conservative independent in the Kansas Gubernatorial election challenging incumbent Laura Kelly. He claimed to be running to “give Kansans a choice” while GOP nominee Derek Schmidt’s campaign labeled Pyle a “fake conservative who just wants attention.” Kelly would go on to win re-election 49.5 percent to 47.3 percent. Pyle’s two percent would not have been enough to “spoil” the election for Schmidt, but Republican leaders still targeted Pyle accusing him of costing them the election. 

Pyle’s voting record in the Senate is conservative, with few breaks from the party line. A major break in line was Pyle’s vote against establishing a flat income tax and subsequent vote to uphold Laura Kelly’s veto on the tax legislation. Both challengers have campaigned on being “true conservatives,” promising to be good stewards of the Republican Party. 

District Information

Senate District 1 covers the NE corner of Kansas, including the counties of Atchison, Brown, Doniphan, Jackson, Jefferson (part), Leavenworth (part) Marshall (part), and Nemaha. There is no Democrat or 3rd party in this election; the winner of the three-way primary will win the election. 

Rep. Eplee currently represents all of Doniphan and Atchison counties, providing him with a good hometown advantage (~33 percent of SD-1). Bowser hails from Holton, Jackson County which translates to less than 10 percent of SD-1’s population. Leavenworth County (part) was added this year in redistricting, and Pottawatomie (part) was removed from this district. This means 10 percent of the district is new. 

There are 51,500 registered voters in the district, with 28,000 (54 percent) registered Republicans. More than 14,000 unaffiliated voters will have the opportunity to register with the Republican Party to vote in this election. 

SD-1 voted for Trump in 2020 by 48pts and for Schmidt in 2022 by 22pts. 

Endorsements

Sen. Dennis Pyle: Kansas Rifle Association (NRA)

Rep. John Eplee: Kansans for Life - Kansas Farm Bureau - Kansas Livestock Association

Craig Bowser: Kansans for Life - Americans for Prosperity Kansas - Kansas Family Voice - Brown and Jackson County Sheriffs

Kansas Chamber PAC declined to endorse in this race.

Financials

In financial news, the challengers have collectively raised $75,000 since January, with Bowser raising $9,750 and Eplee bringing in $65,700. Impressively, they entered the year with a combined $172,000. Bowser started the year with over $100,300 in his bank account leaving Eplee with just over $72,300, Even more impressively, Bowser spent just under $100,000 since January, and Eplee eclipsed this by shelling out $130,025 to win the primary. $60,000 of Bowser’s spending was a loan repayment, reflecting a reality of around $40,000 spent on the actual campaign during this period. Neither challenger has more than $11,000 to spend in the last week of the primary campaign. On the other end, Pyle is not going down without a fight. 

Pyle entered the year with over $70,700 and raised another $48,800 to complement. He has so far spent over $83,000 in his reelection efforts. In total, this race accounts for around 20 percent of total spending by all candidates in the primary election period. It is by far the most expensive primary election, spending far more than the next closest SD-19. 

Kansas Chamber PAC is spending big in this election, having spent over $66,000 on digital, radio, and mailer ads against Dennis Pyle. 

Prediction

Keeping in mind the immense difficulty in forecasting primary elections, when factoring in endorsements, finances, and candidate quality, my gut tells me that John Eplee or Craig Bowser will win this primary election. I give slight advantages to Bowser. I would not at all be surprised, however, if Eplee and Bowser split the anti-Pyle vote and Dennis Pyle wins reelection with around 40 percent of the vote. Pyle’s ceiling is somewhere around 60 percent of the vote.