SD-19 Dem

Background

A hotly contested Democratic primary, three players are vying for this new safe Democratic seat. House Minority Leader Rep. Vic Miller faces former U.S. Navy Officer Patrick Schmidt and educator and community advocate ShaMecha King Simms for this open seat. The candidates are not necessarily campaigning against each other, but for themselves. However, other organizations are getting involved in this primary. In a May Democratic primary candidate forum, Miller made comments about the record number of women running for office and that the Legislature needs more women. He then addressed Simms, a black woman, and told her that her “time’s another day, another place.” Kansas Democratic Party Chair Jeanna Repass condemned these comments. 

Miller’s campaign focuses on reducing the tax burden, abortion rights, and medicaid expansion. Simms has focused on reproductive freedom, workers rights, and medicaid expansion. Schmidt has been comparably quieter in this election despite having originally ran for US Congress 2nd Congressional District in 2022. His campaign priorities are very similar to Simms and Miller. There appears to be no major ideological difference between the trio of candidates. 

District Information

There are over 42,000 registered voters in the district, with 16,800 (40 percent) registered Democrats. Over 14,500 unaffiliated voters will have the opportunity to register with the Democratic Party to vote in this election. The winner of this primary will face either Republicans Cynthia Smith or Tyler Wible in the general election.

SD-19 saw significant changes in redistricting in 2020. It is technically held by Republican Rick Kloos, but after redistricting he is now running in the 3rd Senate District, leaving the 19th open. It previously covered the eastern portions of Topeka, as well as rural portions Shawnee and Douglas Counties, and all of Osage County. Now, SD-19 covers the central and eastern portions of Topeka, and the northwestern most portion of Lawrence. It also includes the communities of Tecumseh and Lecompton. Rep. Miller currently represents House District 58, half of which is located within Senate District 19. His current constituents account for less than one-quarter of the district. 

SD-19 voted for Biden in 2020 by 31pts and for Kelly in 2022 by 47pts. 

Endorsements

Rep. Vic Miller: Kansas Livestock Association -  Kansas National Educators Association - Gun Sense Voter - Mainstream Coalition

Patrick Schmidt: Laura Kelly’s Middle of the Road PAC - VoteVets - Gun Sense Voter

ShaMecha King Simms: Gun Sense Voter

Financials

Vic Miller has only raised $22,700 since January. He entered the year with $23,400. Miller spent $21,100 since January in the primary election. This would usually be a solid financial showing, but compared to his challengers, Miller is far, far behind in this metric. 

In his efforts, Patrick Schmidt entered the year with well over $110,000 and added another impressive $52,000 to spend. Of that, he spent $131,750 to win this primary election.

ShaMecha King Simms started the year with $273 and added $3,900 to boost her bank account. She has expended the least of the candidates spending a mere $4,000 so far in the primary.

Prediction

This is a very tough race to predict. Miller claims many endorsements and has his constituents giving him a boost. Schmidt received some coveted endorsements and has extremely good financials. At the end of the day, I find Schmidt best positioned to win the election. Simms did not raise enough to indicate she is a serious player, leaving Miller and Schmidt. While Miller does boast good endorsements, Schmidt appears to have more support of the party and establishment, and has more than enough money to win. Governor Laura Kelly's Middle of the Road PAC is spending big money against Miller on the radio and airwaves, and the Kansas Democratic Party is not happy with Miller's race comments. I predict Schmidt wins with around 60 percent of the vote. I would give him about a 60 percent chance of winning, 30 percent to Miller, and 10 percent to Simms.