SD-2 Dem

Background

One of few Democratic legislators being seriously challenged this year, incumbent Senator Marci Francisco’s 2nd Senate District is being contested by current HD-10 Representative Christina Haswood. Considered one of the most progressive Democrats in the House, Young Democrat Haswood is giving up her solid democratic district to challenge Francisco, seemingly from the left. Francisco has no controversial votes to note, and is consistently rated poorly by conservative organizations such as Kansans for Life, American Conservative Union, National Rifle Association, and more. No Labels Kansas attempted to place Francisco on the general election ballot under their banner, but did so without her knowledge. Francisco denounced the move, restated her commitment to the Democratic Party, and the Kansas Secretary of State announced an investigation into GOP operative Kris Van Meteren for potential violations of election law.

Haswood has not spoken at length about her decision to challenge an incumbent Senator, but does appear to be campaigning that she is not seeking to oust Francisco for any specific reason, but to join the Senate to bring a fresh perspective and fight for her policy priorities. Public questionnaires show nearly identical stances on the common issues in Kansas politics. 

District Information

There are over 45,000 registered voters in the district, with 23,600 (52 percent) registered Democrats. Nearly 13,000 unaffiliated voters will have the opportunity to register with the Democratic Party to vote in this election. The winner of the primary will face Republican David Miller in the general election. 

SD-2 saw significant changes in redistricting in 2020. It previously covered the northern and central portions of Lawrence, as well as nearly all of Jefferson County. Now, SD-2 is located almost entirely in Lawrence, leaving out the easternmost neighborhoods. Rep. Haswood currently represents House District 10, which is located almost entirely within Senate District 2. Her constituents account for around one-third of the district. 

SD-2 voted for Biden in 2020 by 58pts and for Kelly in 2022 by 69pts. 

Endorsements

Sen. Marci Francisco: Kansas Farm Bureau - Kansas Livestock Association - Middle of the Road PAC - Kansas National Educators Association - Planned Parenthood Great Plains - Gun Sense Voter

Rep. Christina Haswood: Planned Parenthood Great Plains - Gun Sense Voter - Kansas Young Democrats - Run for Something - Advance Native Political Leadership Action Fund

Financials

Marci Francisco has raised $34,750 since January. She entered the year with $38,100. Interestingly, Francisco only spent $31,150 since January in the primary election. She has over $41,000 in her account with less than a week to go, it will be interesting to see how confident she is and whether she will spend this money.

In her challenge, Haswood raised an impressive $52,000 and spent over $37,250. Over $16,000 of her fundraising came from outside of SD-2 with nearly $11,000 coming from out of state. In contrast, less than $1,500 of Francisco’s fundraising came from out of state, but around $17,000 came from out of district, mostly owing to PAC donations. Haswood filed a Last Minute Contribution report indicating an additional $3,000 in major donations from PACs and out-of-state lobbyists. 

Prediction

Lawrence is a very progressive city which bodes well for Haswood, who has a strong campaign being run. However, incumbents that do not have any controversies are extremely hard to unseat. Haswood has a lot of money coming from out of state donations, but still boasts an impressive 125 unique donors from the district. I predict Marci Francisco to continue on her reelection path with less than 60 percent of the vote. I give Haswood a solid 40 percent chance of winning.