SD-26 GOP

Background

In one of the more electorally interesting general elections of the 2024 cycle, United Kansas will be put to the test in this Sedgwick County seat. The prelude to that test is the Republican primary in which the effective incumbent Sen. Chase Blasi is being challenged by former Kansas State Representative J.C. Moore. Moore was unseated in 2020 by current representative Brian Bergkamp by an extremely wide 70 point margin. This comes one election after Moore shockingly unseated incumbent John Whitmer by ~50 votes in 2018. Moore’s crushing defeat can be attributed to his conservative challenger attacking a few moderate votes of his, specifically when he voted to expand Medicaid. Moore breaks with Republicans in rejecting a flat income tax, bans on transgender women in sports, banning gender-affirming care for youth, and disavowing the Parents’ Bill of Rights. Blasi supports all of these policies. Moore does side with the GOP on abortion, but has said he respects the results of the “Value them Both” referendum and would not push for more abortion restrictions at this time. This election is a classic conservative vs. moderate Republican primary. Only this time, it is the moderate challenging a conservative incumbent.

District Information

There are over 50,500 registered voters in the district, with 26,300 (52 percent) registered Republicans. Over 15,000 unaffiliated voters will have the opportunity to register with the Democratic Party to vote in this election. The winner of this primary will face Democrat Raymond H. Shore Jr. If J.C. Moore loses the primary election, he can accept the United Kansas nomination to appear on the ballot for the general election. 

SD-26 saw minor changes in redistricting in 2020. It is technically held by Republican Dan Kerschen, but after redistricting this is now Chase Blasi’s home district. SD-26 grew to include the more rural western portion of Sedgwick County. It includes the westernmost neighborhoods of Wichita, Haysville, Goddard, and Clearwater. It no longer includes Mulvane and portions of Derby. 

SD-26 voted for Trump in 2020 by 40pts and for Schmidt in 2022 by 20pts. 

Endorsements

Sen. Chase Blasi: Kansas Farm Bureau - Kansans for Life - National Federation of Independent Business - Kansas Livestock Association - Kansas Rifle Association (NRA) - Kansas Family Voice - Kansas Chamber PAC

J.C. Moore: Kansas National Educators Association

Financials

Sen. Blasi has raised $21,600 since January. He entered the year with an impressive $96,200. Blasi spent nearly $44,000 since January in the primary election. 

In his efforts, J.C. Moore raised $17,000 and spent 10% of Blasi’s expenditures, a mere $4,400. Moore has spent about as much on his entire campaign as Blasi did on parade supplies alone. Moore did not have any cash at the start of the year.

Prediction

Sen. Blasi comes into the race with all of the advantages. I struggle to find a scenario in which J.C. Moore takes a significant chunk of primary votes, let alone wins. Based on his mediocre fundraising and sheer lack of spending, it does appear that he has “cut his losses” and is preparing to appear on the ballot as a United Kansas candidate. I predict Blasi advances with over 70 percent of the vote.