House Races

HD-1 Dem

Incumbent Representative Michael Houser (GOP) did not file for reelection this year. Two Democrats filed in an attempt to replace him: farmer Janie Jarrett and Paul Rogers. There is not much information on this primary, largely owing to the fact that it is a solid Republican seat. Both candidates appear to be standard Democrats in ideology, promoting Medicaid expansion, lowering property taxes, and protecting reproductive freedom. The winner will face Republican Dale Helwig in November. 

Janie Jarrett has the endorsement of the Kansas National Education Association. Paul Rogers has no notable endorsements. 

There are 18,200 registered voters in HD-1, with 3,400 (19 percent) registered Democrats eligible to vote in this primary. 5,800 unaffiliated voters will have the chance to declare as Democrats and vote. HD-1 voted for Trump in 2020 by 52pts and for Schmidt in 2022 by 40pts. 

Rogers self financed $17,000 for his campaign, which he is actively spending. He has spent $12,800 so far on his campaign, primarily on literature and signs. In 2022, he spent a similar amount on his campaign, all personal loans which he did not raise money to pay himself back with. Jarrett raised $7,400 and spent $5,000 on her campaign efforts.

This is a tough primary to predict with such little information and few voters. Rogers has better funding and name recognition, having run for office several times. However, it appears that Rogers has a better ground game despite fewer funds. My bold prediction is that Jarrett wins in a shocking “upset” with around 70 percent of the vote.

 HD-4 GOP

Incumbent representative Trevor Jacobs (GOP) declined to file for reelection this year. Jacobs had an interesting voting record in the House, introducing bills to completely ban abortion in Kansas, but voted to sustain Governor Kelly’s veto on the implementation of a flat income tax. It is likely that this vote cost him his party’s support and drove his decision not to seek reelection. Filing to replace him are veteran, local businessman, and former Linn County Commissioner Rick James and entrepreneur Joshua Jones. Both candidates appear to be standard conservative Republicans with no major differences in ideologies. They do focus on local issues and Jones appears to cater a bit to the more right-wing faction of his party. 

There are 19,300 registered voters in HD-4, with 10,100 (52 percent) registered Republicans eligible to vote in this primary. 5,800 unaffiliated voters will have the chance to declare as Republicans and vote. HD-4 voted for Trump in 2020 by 56pts and for Schmidt in 2022 by 38pts. 

This district had the most interesting finances of any race. Joshua Jones did not report a single cent raised or spent, and I can find no spending on his behalf. Rick James also reported no money raised, but did report over $6,000 spent. These were all normal expenditures reported, and I expect him to use a personal loan to pay it back.

Both candidates were endorsed by Kansans for Life, and Rick James also received endorsements from the Kansas Rifle Association (NRA). 

James has all of the fundamentals in his favor right now. More money spent,slightly more endorsements, a base of supporters from previous elected office, and expenditures that indicate an active ground game. I predict he wins the primary fairly easily with around 70 percent of the vote. 

HD-10 Dem

When Christina Haswood announced she would be running for a seat in the Kansas Senate, this opened up HD-10, a safe Democratic seat based in Lawrence, and a dream seat for anyone hoping to make a career in public advocacy. Two Democrats filed to replace Haswood, young progressive Zachary Hawkins and public health advocate Suzzane Wikle. Both candidates are on the progressive side of the Democratic tent and agree on virtually all policies including Medicaid expansion, reproductive justice, housing rights, and more. There is no Republican or 3rd party candidate, the winner of this primary will be unopposed in the general election. 

Suzanne Wikle received the endorsement of the Kansas National Education Association, Planned Parenthood Great Plains, and Gun Sense Voter. Hawkins does not have any notable endorsements. 

There are 14,400 registered voters in HD-10, with 7,400 (51 percent) registered Democrats eligible to vote in this primary. 4,400 unaffiliated voters will have the chance to declare as Democrats and vote. HD-10 voted for Biden in 2020 by 56pts and for Kelly in 2022 by 69pts. 

Wikle began the year with an already decent bank account of $16,500 and even added on another $13,700. Her donations came from medium-sized donors, but 65 percent of donations came from individuals and PACs outside of the district and 30 percent came from individuals residing outside of Kansas. Hawkins raised less than $400 and did not report any spending. 

Wikle has the endorsement and fundraising advantage. As long as she has at least a mediocre ground game, she should win this primary fairly easily. I predict she garners 70 percent of the vote. 

HD-19 GOP

The Republicans seemingly put up two sacrificial candidates to face former Republican and six-term incumbent Stephanie Clayton. Mark Hermes and Anthony Marshall Orwick have not been extremely active on the campaign trail, either physically or digitally. Not much is known about the differences between these candidates (other than that Mark Hermes is very conservative). The winner will face Democrat Stephanie Clayton in the general election.

Neither candidate received a notable endorsement from an individual or organization. 

There are 20,000 registered voters in HD-19, with 7,900 (39 percent) registered Republicans eligible to vote in this primary. 4,500 unaffiliated voters will have the chance to declare as Republicans and vote. HD-19 voted for Biden in 2020 by 26pts and for Kelly in 2022 by 36pts. 

Neither candidate raised more than $50, with Orwick reporting $40 he donated to himself and has not yet spent. Hermes did not report any contributions, but did spend $200 on the filing fee and stickers. 

I have next to no information to go off of to predict the outcome of this election. My best guess is that Hermes will win, but I cannot imagine either candidate getting more than 65-70 percent of the vote. 

HD-33 Dem

House District 33 covers suburban Wyandotte County, and has the opportunity to be fairly competitive in November. The Democratic primary is between young Democrat and laborer Mathew Reinhold and educator Eli Woody. Woody originally intended on running for U.S. Congress in Kansas’ 2nd Congressional District, but ultimately decided to run for his state house seat and challenge incumbent Mike Thompson (GOP). Reinhold campaigns on voter apathy and bringing representation to all communities. Woody focuses on economic growth, Medicaid expansion, reproductive rights, and education. The winner will face the winner of the Republican primary in November.

Eli Woody received the endorsement of Everytown for Gun Safety, Gun Sense Voter, and Moms Demand Action. Reinhold does not have any notable endorsements.

There are 15,400 registered voters in HD-33, with 5,200 (33 percent) registered Democrats eligible to vote in this primary. 5,300 unaffiliated voters will have the chance to declare as Democrats and vote. HD-33 voted for Trump in 2020 by 1pt and for Kelly in 2022 by 12pts. 

Woody raised the most money at $9,100 in small donations from all across the country. He has spent $5,000 during the primary cycle. Reinhold entered the year with $800 and added another $7,000 to nearly match Woody’s cash. $1,500 was a personal loan, and the rest was primarily small donations from residents of Northeast Kansas. He spent only $1,100 on his campaign. 

Reinhold appears to have more grassroots fundraising, but a lack of spending and endorsements indicates a smaller ground game than Woody. I think the primary election will be closer than expected for Woody, but I think he is the favorite going into the election. I expect him to get around (or less than) 60 percent of the vote. Regardless of whoever wins, this should be a competitive race and a flip opportunity for Democrats. The winner will need to step up fundraising efforts in the general. 

HD-33 GOP

Incumbent Republican Representative Mike Thompson is facing a primary challenge from Clifton N. Boje. Not much reporting has covered this election, but from what I can find, Clifton Boje is an active member of the Free the States movement, an abortion abolitionist organization in Kansas. There has been next to no public-facing campaigning in this primary. The winner will face the Democratic nominee in November. 

Mike Thompson received the endorsement of Kansas Farm Bureau, National Federation of Independent Business, Kansas Livestock Association, Kansas Rifle Association (NRA), Kansas Family Voice, and Kansas Chamber PAC. Boje has no notable endorsements. 

There are 15,400 registered voters in HD-33, with 4,700 (31 percent) registered Republicans eligible to vote in this primary. 5,300 unaffiliated voters will have the chance to declare as Republicans and vote. HD-33 voted for Trump in 2020 by 1pt and for Kelly in 2022 by 12pts. 

Thompson raised essentially all the money in this primary, adding $22,700 to his $21,000 bank compared to Boje’s $300. Boje spent half of that while Thompson spent $7,000, holding much of his war chest back for the general election. 

Thompson clearly has all the advantages, name recognition, money, endorsements, and a strong ground game. I would be surprised if he won by less than 80 percent. 

HD-35 Dem

(Click the header to be taken to HD-35's profile)

HD-41 GOP

This is not a competitive primary. Incumbent Rep. Pat Proctor (GOP) is facing a challenge from Robert Owens, who has not done any public relations work and has a  near non-existent physical or digital footprint. The winner will face Democrat Aimee Bateman in November’s general election. 

Pat Proctor received the endorsement of Kansas Farm Bureau, National Federation of Independent Business, Kansas Livestock Association, Kansas Rifle Association (NRA), Kansas Family Voice, and Kansas Chamber PAC. Owens has no notable endorsements. 

There are 12,000 registered voters in HD-41, with 4,300 (35 percent) registered Republicans eligible to vote in this primary. 4,600 unaffiliated voters will have the chance to declare as Republicans and vote. HD-41 voted for Trump in 2020 by 13pt and for Kelly in 2022 by 4pts. 

Proctor raised all the money in this primary, adding $40,200 to his $33,100 bank account. Proctor spent $41,300 to win the primary and prepare for the general election. Owens did not raise or spend any funds. 

Proctor is the heavy favorite going into the general due to no indication that Robert Owens is seriously competing in this election. I predict Proctor to win with more than 85 percent of the vote. 

HD-42 GOP

Incumbent one-term Rep. Lance W. Neelly (GOP) is facing a serious primary challenge from Leavenworth County Commissioner Mike Stieben. There does not appear to be a significant ideological difference between the two. Neelly is campaigning on property tax relief, small business promotion, and against unnecessary regulation. Mike Stieben is campaigning on transparency and responsiveness, property tax relief, and education funding. The winner of the primary will face Democrat Eddy Martinez in the general election. 

Lance Neelly received the endorsement of Kansas Farm Bureau, Kansans for Life, National Federation of Independent Business, Kansas Livestock Association, Kansas Rifle Association (NRA), Kansas Family Voice, and Kansas Chamber PAC. Stieben has no notable endorsements. 

There are just under 17,000 registered voters in HD-42, with 7,700 (45 percent) registered Republicans eligible to vote in this primary. 4,900 unaffiliated voters will have the chance to declare as Republicans and vote. HD-42 voted for Trump in 2020 by 23pt and for Schmidt in 2022 by 1pt. 

Fundraising has some interesting details. Stieben outraised Neelly with almost $13,000 to Neelly’s $10,000. However, around $9,000 of Stieben’s funds are personal loans. Neelly also entered the race with $16,700 to use, which he did in spending $13,200 on his campaign. Stieben also spent his money, over $12,000, leaving him with just a few hundred dollars in the final week. Stieben reported an additiona; $2,600 loan to himself in the last week of the campaign.

Neelly starts ahead due to incumbency, money, and establishment support. Stieben has enough money to put up a fight with an excellent ground game, but there is next-to-no anti-Neelly vote to speak of. Kansas Chamber is also spending big, shelling out almost $10,000 on Neelly. I expect Neelly to win with 55 percent of the vote.

HD-46 Dem

One month after being reelected to his sixth term in the Legislature, Rep. Dennis “Boog” Highberger (Dem) announced he would not seek another term in the 2024 election. This opened up a very safe Democratic seat in Lawrence that attracted three candidates: KU student Logan Ginavan, education advocate Brittany Kathleen Hall, and digital media executive Brooklynne Mosley. Ginavan is one of the (if not the) youngest candidates of the 2024 cycle. Hall serves as the President of the Haskell National Board of Regents. Mosley is a progressive campaign staffer, having worked for Paul Davis, Bernie Sanders, and Laura Kelly’s campaigns. There are no notable differences in policy among the three candidates, as reproductive rights, Medicaid expansion, and economic security are priorities for all the candidates. No Republican or 3rd party candidate filed, making the winner of the primary unopposed in November. 

Mosley has the support of the Kansas National Education Association, Mainstream Coalition, and Gun Sense Voter. Hall got the nod from Kansas Farm Bureau, Run for Something, Advance Native Political Leadership Fund, and Gun Sense Voter. Ginavan was only endorsed by Gun Sense Voter. 

There are 12,000 registered voters in HD-46, with 6,900 (58 percent) registered Democrats eligible to vote in this primary. 3,400 unaffiliated voters will have the chance to declare as Democrats and vote. HD-46 voted for Biden in 2020 by 70pts and for Kelly in 2022 by 80pts. 

Mosley outraised the other candidates combined 3:1 in raising $17,700 compared to Hall’s $3,500 and Ginavan’s $770. Mosley outspent her challengers almost 6:1 by spending $8,500 and neither other candidate spent more than $900.

Mosley has the fundraising advantage, endorsements, and ground game to win this primary by a decent margin. I expect her to win with around 55 percent of the vote. 

HD-48 GOP

HD-48 is a suburban Johnson County seat currently held by two-term Representative Dan Osman (Dem). The Republican challengers are business consultant Randy Ross and retired healthcare worker Debbie Paulbeck. Ross tends to exhibit traditional Republican values while Paulbeck caters more to the populist side. Ross advocates for increased education funding, balanced spending and taxation, and cyber security improvements. Paulbeck campaigns on tax relief, restricting pornography, and protecting infrastructure from “Communist China.” Neither candidate is campaigning heavily on issues like abortion or LGBTQ rights. The winner of the Republican primary will face incumbent Democrat Dan Osman in the general election.

Ross has the endorsement of Kansans for Life, Johnson County Young Republicans, and the Kansas City Star. Paulbeck got the nod of Kansans for Life, Kansas Chamber PAC, and Kansas Livestock Association (NRA).

There are 17,500 registered voters in HD-48, with 7,600 (43 percent) registered Republicans eligible to vote in this primary. 4,500 unaffiliated voters will have the chance to declare as Republicans and vote. HD-48 voted for Biden in 2020 by 7pts and for Kelly in 2022 by 18pts. 

Ross raised a solid $25,300, but over $20,000 was a personal loan. This effectively makes his fundraising less than Paulbecks $7,800 contribution haul. On the other hand, even though he self-financed his campaign, the $21,700 he spent heavily outweighs the $5,500 Paulbeck spent during the primary.

This is going to be a close primary, but Paulbeck clearly has more grassroots support. The question being asked is if Ross is able to pay his way into the seat. The Kansas Chamber PAC is spending nearly $10,000 in support of Paulbeck, as well. Ross’ traditionalist approach to Republican values and politics might play a bit better in suburban Johnson County. I predict Ross will win with less than 55 percent of the vote. This is a coin toss race. 

HD-51 GOP

In April 2024, current HD-51 Representative Kenny Titus (GOP) announced his intention to run for Kansas Senate and leave his House seat open. The rural Riley, Pottawatomie, and Wabaunsee County seat attracted two Republican candidates, Republican staffer Eli Kormanik and small business owner Megan D. Steele. Kormanik is campaigning on the standard GOP platform of anti-LGBTQ rights, fewer business regulation, pro-marriage, and increasing oversight over schools. Steele is fairly similar, campaigning on education oversight, lower property taxes, and calls “transgenderism” a “mental health disorder.” The winner will face Democrat Linda Morse in the general election. 

Kormanik has the support of Kansans for Life and Kansas Chamber PAC. Steele has the endorsement of Kansans for Life.

There are just under 17,000 registered voters in HD-51, with 10,000 (59 percent) registered Republicans eligible to vote in this primary. 3,900 unaffiliated voters will have the chance to declare as Republicans and vote. HD-51 voted for Trump in 2020 by 35pts and for Schmidt in 2022 by 10pts. 

The finances are interesting, as Kormanik slightly outraised Steele $8,800 to $6,900 ($2,500 was a personal loan from Steele) but was outspent $2,900 to $6,300. This, however, does not factor in the $6,600 that Kansas Chamber PAC is spending on behalf of Kormanik in this primary.  

I think this will be particularly close, but I could be surprised. Kormanik appears to have more grassroots support and has the backing of the powerful Kansas Chamber PAC who is spending on his behalf. Kansans for Life endorsed both candidates, leaving the Chamber as the biggest difference between the two. Steele appears to have a slightly stronger ground game as evident through her spending. I think Kormanik is ahead right now, but Steele has every opportunity to get back ahead. I predict Kormanik to get 55 percent of the vote. 

HD-58 Dem

Rep. Vic Miller (Dem) left this safe Democratic seat to take a shot at the Kansas Senate. His departure attracted two political staffers, Democrats Wendy Damman-Bednar and Alexis Simmons. Damman-Bednar has worked as an organizer for the Kansas Democratic Party, and Simmons is the Communications Director for the KS House Minority Leader. Both candidates promote the standard Democratic platform of Medicaid expansion, reproductive freedom, and workers’ rights. The winner will face Republican Michael Mathewson in the general election. 

Simmons has the endorsement of the Kansas National Education Association, Run for Something, Kansas Young Democrats, and Gun Sense Voter. Damman-Bednar has no notable endorsements. 

There are 13,000 registered voters in HD-58, with 5,100 (39 percent) registered Democrats eligible to vote in this primary. 4,700 unaffiliated voters will have the chance to declare as Democrats and vote. HD-58 voted for Biden in 2020 by 28pts and for Kelly in 2022 by 40pts. 

Simmons has the monetary advantage, raising $14,000 and spending just under $7,000 on her campaign. Steele has only raised $1,000 and spent less than $500.

Simmons has the clear advantage going into election day. She has the money, establishment support, and strong ground game. I expect her to win with over 70 percent of the vote. 

HD-60 GOP

This had the potential of being a very competitive primary. Rep. Mark Schreiber (GOP) is one of the last few moderate Republicans in the Kansas House. In the 2023-2024 election, he broke from the party line several times in voting to sustain Governor Kelly’s veto on banning gender-affirming care, flat tax plan, and anti-abortion regulations. Since 2016, moderate Republicans have been all but purged from elected office, and Schreiber is one of the last few remaining. Will Spencer is not aggressively campaigning, and when he is campaigning, he is not doing so as a hard-line conservative, focusing on his business experience and economic platform. The winner of this election will face Democrat James “Mic” McGuire in the general election. 

Schreiber has the endorsement of the Kansas Farm Bureau, National Federation for Independent Business, Kansas Livestock Association, Kansas National Education Association, and Kansans First. Spencer has no notable endorsements. 

There are just under 14,000 registered voters in HD-60, with 5,000 (36 percent) registered Republicans eligible to vote in this primary. 5,000 unaffiliated voters will have the chance to declare as Republicans and vote. HD-60 voted for Biden in 2020 by 0.4pts and for Kelly in 2022 by 21pts. 

Schreiber entered the year with a solid $32,300 in his bank and raised another $8,500 to spend. He used $17,000 of his funds so far in the primary election. Spencer loaned himself all $2,000 of his contributions and spent $1,500 in his efforts to oust the incumbent. 

This primary could have been one of the closest primaries of the year, but the conservative faction of the Republican party appears content with letting Schreiber have another two years in office. Schreiber has the money, endorsement, and ground game to win this election with at least 65 percent of the vote. 

HD-62 GOP

The retirement of Randy Garber opened up this rural North-Eastern House seat. Three Republicans filed to run for election: farmer Dorothy (Dort) Goodman, engineer Sean M. Willcott, and Nemaha County Commissioner Dylan Keim. All three candidates promote standard Republican policies with no major ideological differences between them. Keim has a base advantage due to his service as a county commissioner, Willcott has great relations with the business community, and Goodman is active in her county Republican Party. No Democrat or 3rd party filed in this election. 

Goodman has been endorsed by Kansans for Life. Willcott received the endorsement of Kansans for Life, Americans for Prosperity, and Kansas Chamber PAC. Keim has the support of the current Representative Randy Garber, Kansans for Life, and half-a-dozen County Commissioners in the District.

There are 16,400 registered voters in HD-62, with 10,000 (61 percent) registered Republicans eligible to vote in this primary. 3,900 unaffiliated voters will have the chance to declare as Republicans and vote. HD-62 voted for Trump in 2020 by 58pts and for Schmidt in 2022 by 28pts. 

The candidates' finance filings are largely similar. Keim raised the most money, $6,200 and spent the most, also $6,200. Willcott was next, fundraising $5,850 and spending $5,600. Goodman was clearly third in finances raising only $2,400 and spending $2,200 of that. Kansas Chamber PAC is getting involved in this race, spending $6,900 on mailers in support of Willcott. 

I tend to think Keim wins this election due to his larger base of support as a county commissioner and having the support of outgoing Rep. Randy Garber. I would consider this an upset as the Kansas Chamber is spending more than any candidate in support of Willcott, and their name does carry weight. I think Goodman is safely the third place candidate here. I predict Keim to get 45 percent of the vote, Willcott to get 40 percent, and Goodman to get 15 percent.

HD-65 GOP

Incumbent Rep. Jeff Underhill (GOP) has served HD-65 for one term, winning his 2022 primary and general elections unopposed. This year he faces his first contested election in the Legislature with builder Shawn Chauncey. Chauncey’s platform is not too different from Underhill’s with both candidates focusing on economic opportunity and quality education/child welfare. Chauncey’s main opposition to Rep. Underhill is his service in both the House and on the Junction City Commission at the same time. Chauncey believes this has divided Underhill’s attention to the detriment of Junction City residents, and wants to win this seat to provide adequate representation to his fellow residents. The winner will face Democrat Lorraine Ceniceros in the general election. 

Rep. Underhill has the endorsements of the Kansas Farm Bureau, National Federation of Independent Business, Kansas Livestock Association, Kansas Rifle Association (NRA), and Kansas Chamber PAC. Chauncey has no notable endorsements. 

There are 13,300 registered voters in HD-65, with 4,900 (37 percent) registered Republicans eligible to vote in this primary. 5,000 unaffiliated voters will have the chance to declare as Republicans and vote. HD-65 voted for Trump in 2020 by 11pts and for Kelly in 2022 by 8pts. 

Fundraising is much closer than Underhill would appreciate. He entered the year with less than $3,000 in his bank account, raised a mere $2,200, and spent $3,500 on his campaign. In contrast, Chauncey raised $1,600 and spent almost all of it at $1,500. 

I think Underhill starts out as the favorite, but I would not be surprised if Chauncey pulled out an upset. In fact, I would say there is no indication Underhill has a better ground game with almost all of his expenditures being spent on digital ads and electronics (almost a third of his spending was on a computer). Actually, I talked myself out of it, right here, right now I am predicting a pretty major upset and Chauncey wins by just a handful of votes. 

HD-67 GOP

Two-term representative Mike Dodson (GOP) announced he would not seek reelection in 2024. Two Republicans, business strategist Angel Roeser and perennial Manhattan City Commission candidate Kaleb James. Neither candidate seems to be staunchly conservative, with both taking more moderate, bipartisan, and pro-business approaches to their campaigns. Both want to lower taxes and increase government responsiveness. 

Angel Roeser was endorsed by the Kansas National Education Association and the Kansas Chamber PAC. Kaleb James has no notable endorsements. 

There are 16,300 registered voters in HD-67, with 6,700 (41 percent) registered Republicans eligible to vote in this primary. 4,600 unaffiliated voters will have the chance to declare as Republicans and vote. HD-67 voted for Biden in 2020 by 6.5pts and for Kelly in 2022 by 24pts. 

Kaleb James’ finance data has not been made available at the time of publication. This profile will be updated when his numbers are publicized. Roeser raised a solid $6,000 (most of which coming from PACs and corporations) and practically spent it all, leaving her with very little for the general election, should she win the primary. She also essentially loaned herself another $2,000 in materials and services.

There is little information to go off of here, especially without James’ finance report. Roeser does have respectable endorsements and fundraising, and I cautiously give her the nod for now. I expect her to win with around 70 percent of the vote. I will expand on this section once James’ finances are released and I can analyze his donors and expenditures.

HD-77 GOP

Rep. Kristey Williams (GOP) has represented HD-77 since 2015, running unopposed in the last four primaries and general elections. This year, she faces her first electoral challenge since her very first House election, the 2014 Republican primary. Her opponent, educator Doug Law, is challenging her as the moderate candidate - Kristey Williams is consistently rated highly by conservative organizations such as Americans for Prosperity, American Conservative Union, and Kansas Policy Institute. Law supports Medicaid expansion, LGBTQ equality in the eyes of the law, medical marijuana, and opposed school vouchers. Law has criticized people accusing teachers of “indoctrinating” kids. No Democrat or third party filed for this seat. The winner will be unopposed in the general election.

Williams has all the major endorsements including Kansas Farm Bureau, Kansans for Life, National Federation of Independent Business, Kansas Livestock Association, Kansas Rifle Association (NRA), Kansas Family Voice, and Kansas Chamber PAC. Law has the support of the Kansas National Education Association and Kansans First. 

There are 17,500 registered voters in HD-77, with 9,400 (53 percent) registered Republicans eligible to vote in this primary. 5,300 unaffiliated voters will have the chance to declare as Republicans and vote. HD-77 voted for Trump in 2020 by 44pts and for Schmidt in 2022 by 21pts. 

Williams has a substantial fundraising advantage as she entered the year with $60,500 and added another $20,600 to boot. She has spent $23,300 to win her first contested election in 10 years. Law raised what would normally be a formidable $8,200 and spent $4,200 in his attempt to oust Williams. 

Williams is the clear favorite. She has her own money, solid endorsements, a good ground game, and a conservative district. It also helps that the Kansas Chamber PAC is spending $6,700 on her behalf. Williams wins with at least 65 percent of the vote. 

HD-88 Dem

The Democratic primary for HD-88 is a prelude to what I consider to be the most electorally interesting legislative election of 2024. HD-88 has an interesting history voting out incumbents; no incumbent has won reelection during a contested race since before 2010. Chuck Schmidt was such a casualty in 2022. This year he is trying to win his seat back but educator and businesswoman Veronica Gillette is competing for the seat as well. Both candidates support nearly identical policies, but have different priorities. Schmidt is focused on Medicaid expansion while Gillette prioritizes legalizing marijuana. Both are ardent supporters of reproductive freedom, LGBTQ rights, and property tax relief. The winner of this election will face incumbent Republican Sandy Pickert in the general election. 

Schmidt received endorsements from Moms Demand Action, Everytown for Gun Safety, and Kansas Cross Timbers Democrats. Veronica Gillette was endorsed by the Kansas Young Democrats and Kansas Realtors. 

There are 15,500 registered voters in HD-88, with 4,600 (29 percent) registered Democrats eligible to vote in this primary. 5,700 unaffiliated voters will have the chance to declare as Democrats and vote. HD-88 voted for Biden in 2020 by 3.6pts and for Kelly in 2022 by 14pts.

Schmidt has a massive fundraising advantage, entering the year with $14,600 and raising an additional $25,200 for his campaign. He only spent $5,500 to win the primary. Gillette raised less than $5,000 and spent $2,000 on her campaign. 

Schmidt has clear advantages across the board, primarily good money and existing name recognition and infrastructure. I would guess Schmidt wins with around 65 percent of the vote, but could feasibly see him drop below 60 percent. 

HD-90 GOP

The current representative of HD-90 is Rep. Carl Maughan (GOP) who withdrew from reelection after his May 2024 arrest on suspicion of DUI and gun charges. In his absence, three Republicans filed for his seat: former eleven-term Representative Steve Huebert, farmer Jesse McCurry, and Darren Pugh. Not much information is known about Pugh. McCurry has some interesting policy positions, including pro-life, anti-flat tax, anti-trans women in women's sports, ambivalence on gender affirming care for minors, and openly states when he does not understand a policy. Hueberts voting record during his 20 years in office rarely (if ever) broke from the party line. The winner faces Democrat Tracy Edingfield in November.

Steve Huebert is endorsed by Kansans for Life, Kansas Rifle Association (NRA), and the Wichita Chamber, and Kansas Chamber PAC. Jesse McCurry has the support of the Wichita Chamber, Kansas Livestock Association and Kansas Farm Bureau. Darren Pugh had no major endorsements. 

There are 17,100 registered voters in HD-90, with 9,200 (54 percent) registered Republicans eligible to vote in this primary. 5,000 unaffiliated voters will have the chance to declare as Republicans and vote. HD-90 voted for Trump in 2020 by 41pts and for Schmidt in 2022 by 21pts. 

There’s not a clear financial advantage for any candidate here, except that Darren Pugh filed an affidavit exempting him from financial reports due to raising and spending less than $1,000. Huebert held $2,300 from previous years, and raised an additional $6,000. He spent $3,200 in the primary cycle. McCurry raised and spent more, $6,300 and $4,600, respectively. 

While Huebert’s legislative experience might make him the favorite in the race, I believe McCurry is a very formidable opponent, especially with Pugh and Maughan still on the ballot, complicating things. It’s a coinflip, but I think Huebert heads back to the legislature. The tipping point is the $6,500 that the Kansas Chamber PAC is spending on his behalf.

HD-102 GOP

Another consequential primary, the HD-102 Republican primary will have big ramifications on Democrats’ odds to break the GOP supermajority. This election is a proxy battle between the fringe-wing of the Reno County Republican Party led by embattled (and soon-to-be former) State Senator Mark Steffen, who is pushing Tyson Thrall, and the establishment conservative wing embodied by State Representative Paul Waggoner, who is supporting Kyler Sweely. Steffen’s camp filed a complaint alleging that Sweely did not reside in the district and should be removed from the ballot. Sweely’s attorney said that he “moved” to the district less than five days before the election and admitted that he did not live in the property yet, but intended to renovate it and live there in the future. The winner of the election faces incumbent Democratic Rep. Jason Probst in the general election. 

Sweely has the endorsement of Kansans for Life, Kansas Rifle Association (NRA), and the Kansas Chamber PAC. Thrall has the support of Kansans for Life. 

There are 14,800 registered voters in HD-102, with 5,200 (35 percent) registered Republicans eligible to vote in this primary. 5,750 unaffiliated voters will have the chance to declare as Republicans and vote. HD-102 voted for Trump in 2020 by 15pts and for Kelly in 2022 by 10pts. 

Sweely has a clear fundraising advantage, both on his own and from outside sources. He raised $9,700 of which he has spent $9,100. The Kansas Chamber PAC has spent nearly $15,000 in support of Sweely. Thrall has only raised $2,800 and spent $2,100. Both candidates have less than $700 to spend in the final week of the campaign. 

I predict Sweely to safely win this election. Steffen does have a large block of the Reno County Republican Party under his influence, but I am not convinced it’s enough to overcome Sweely’s establishment support and ground game. I do think Sweely wins by around 10-15 points.

HD-105 GOP

Minutes before the Kansas candidate filing deadline, Republican Rep. Brenda Landwehr withdrew from her election after almost three decades of public service in the Legislature. As she did so, she endorsed fellow Republican and small-business owner Jill Ward to replace her. Pastor David Hickman also filed for the seat. Both candidates are staunch conservatives, with one of Hickman’s top priorities being closing the southern border, and Ward prioritizing restricting abortions and LGBTQ rights. The winner faces Democrat John Burke in the general election.

Ward swept most major endorsements that took a stance, securing support from Kansans for Life, the Kansas Chamber PAC, Kansas Rifle Association (NRA), and Rep. Brenda Landwehr. Hickman was also endorsed by Kansans for Life.

There are 15,100 registered voters in HD-105, with 5,900 (39 percent) registered Republicans eligible to vote in this primary. 5,200 unaffiliated voters will have the chance to declare as Republicans and vote. HD-105 voted for Trump in 2020 by 12pts and for Kelly in 2022 by 7pts. 

Finances in this race are a bit confusing. Jill Ward has the advantage in raising $17,200, but she reported no pending. In “other transactions” she reported spending $13,000 of her own money as a loan on campaign supplies. So, in reality, Ward raised $30,000 with $13,000 being a personal loan, and spent $13,000 on her campaign. Hickman was more convention in raising $14,700, but only spent $3,500 in his efforts. 

I see Ward as the clear favorite in this election. She has the endorsements and money, and her spending shows a relatively solid ground game. I expect her to win with 60-65 percent of the vote. 

HD-107 GOP

Days before the filing deadline in 2024, Rep. Susan Concannon (GOP) announced that she would not be seeking reelection after six terms in the Legislature. In her place two Republicans filed for election: veteran and pastor Gerald Johnson and Ottawa County Commissioner Dawn Wolf. There is not an obvious ideological difference between candidates as they both have made statements promising to uphold conservative values if elected. It is notable that Wolf received endorsements of bipartisanship-promoting organizations. There is no Democratic or 3rd party candidate on the ballot in November, the winner of the primary will be unopposed.

Gerald Johnson has the endorsement of Kansans for Life. Dawn Wolf got the nod from Kansans for Life, Kansas Farm Bureau, Kansas National Education Association, Kansas Rifle Association (NRA), Kansas Chamber PAC, and Kansans First. 

There are 16,200 registered voters in HD-107, with 10,000 (61 percent) registered Republicans eligible to vote in this primary. 3,900 unaffiliated voters will have the chance to declare as Republicans and vote. HD-107 voted for Trump in 2020 by 54pts and for Schmidt in 2022 by 28pts. 

Wolf has a slight financial advantage nearly doubling Johnson’s fundraising. She raised $8,100 and spent nearly all of it at $7,500. $2,500 of her fundraising was a personal loan. Johnson pulled in $4,400 and spent far less at $2,300.

Wolf appears to be in a slightly stronger position going into election day. The endorsements she got covers a large swathe of the Republican spectrum, and paired with an at least mediocre ground game, I predict she wins with 65 percent of the vote.

 HD-114 GOP

Rep. Michael Murphy (GOP) is leaving his House seat to seek a higher office. Farmers Steve Schweizer and Kevin D. Schwertfeger filed to replace him. Both candidates are sufficiently conservative, opposing Medicaid expansion, pro-life, cautious on medical marijuana, and critical of the LGBTQ community. There is no Democratic or 3rd party candidate. The winner will be unopposed in the general election. 

Both candidates were endorsed by Kansans for Life, but Schwertfeger was also endorsed by the Kansas Farm Bureau. 

There are 16,100 registered voters in HD-114, with 10,200 (63 percent) registered Republicans eligible to vote in this primary. 3,700 unaffiliated voters will have the chance to declare as Republicans and vote. HD-114 voted for Trump in 2020 by 55pts and for Schmidt in 2022 by 31pts. 

Kevin Schwertfeger’s finance data has not been made available at the time of publication. This profile will be updated when his numbers are publicized. Schweizer raised $1,900 and spent $60. 

There is very, very little information to go off of here, especially without Schertfeger’s finance report. That being said, I cautiously give Schwertfeger the nod. I’ll expand on this once I can analyze his campaign expenditures. 

HD-124 GOP

HD-124 was held by Republican David Younger, who resigned a month before the primary election as he moved out of his district. Chosen to replace him (a week before the primary election) is former Representative and candidate Marty Long. Precinct committee people had the option of choosing between Long and the other candidate, Benjamin Fuentes, and they ultimately chose Long, although the vote count is not yet available. Not much is known about the platform of either candidate, although Long’s previous experience in the Legislature shows a standard conservative voting pattern. No Democratic or 3rd party candidate filed for election. The Republican primary winner will be unopposed in November. 

Long has the endorsement of Kansans for Life, Kansas Farm Bureau, Kansas Livestock Association, Kansas Rifle Association (NRA), Kansas Family Voice, and the Kansas Chamber PAC. Fuentes has no notable endorsements.

There are 14,000 registered voters in HD-124, with 9,600 (69 percent) registered Republicans eligible to vote in this primary. 2,800 unaffiliated voters will have the chance to declare as Republicans and vote. HD-124 voted for Trump in 2020 by 65pts and for Schmidt in 2022 by 45pts. 

Long has a 10 times fundraising advantage, hauling in $21,400 compared to Fuentes $2,000. Long spent $16,000 on his campaign efforts while Fuentes could only manage $1,500 in expenditures. 

Long is the clear favorite here. His appointment back into the Legislature a week before the primary election likely isn’t going to have much of an effect, but the fact that a majority of precinct committee people elected him shows that the party generally supports him. He also has a massive fundraising advantage and swept the endorsements. I expect Long to win with 75 percent of the vote.