Senate Races

Sen. David Haley (D) has been in office since 2001, and a public servant since 1995. He is being challenged by 20-year old community activist Ephren Taylor III, who is proposing that Sen. Haley has not been delivering for the residents of SD-4. Taylor III accuses Haley of favoring landlord rights over tenants, not being strong on medicaid expansion and medical marijuana, and for a 2023 vote in favor of school vouchers. Haley is seen as more of a moderate Democrat in the Senate, receiving mixed ratings from the conservative Kansas Policy Institute, Kansas Chamber, and Americans for Prosperity. Taylor III is clearly challenging Haley from the left. No Republican filed in this district, and the winner of the primary will win the general election uncontested.

Haley has received numerous endorsements on his reelection bid, including from the Kansas Farm Bureau, Kansas Livestock Association, Kansas Rifle Association (NRA), Kansas National Education Association, and Laura Kelly’s Middle of the Road PAC. Taylor III has been endorsed by the Kansas Young Democrats.

There are only 37,000 registered voters in SD-4, with almost 20,000 (53 percent) registered Democrats eligible to vote in this primary. 12,500 unaffiliated voters will have the chance to declare as Democrats and vote. SD-4 voted for Biden in 2020 by 54.5pts and for Kelly in 2022 by 59pts.

Haley raised $27,880 and spent $14,902 in his reelection efforts. He began the year with $18,900 in cash. Taylor III did not begin the year with any money, but raised $6,400, and spent some of it at $3,600.

While not impossible (or even uncommon) to unseat incumbents in Kansas, Haley has not drawn the ire of the party establishment, and Taylor III shows no signs of a uniquely successful ground game. Coupled with an overwhelming fundraising advantage, I predict Haley to comfortably win his primary.

SD-5 GOP

SD-5 will be the GOP’s biggest target in November. It is currently held by Democrat Jeff Pittman but is also a moderately red-leaning seat. In the GOP primary, business owner Jeff Klemp is facing conservative community advocate Echo Van Meteren for the right to challenge Sen. Pittman. Echo Van Meteren’s husband, Kris, is under investigation by the Kansas Secretary of State for potential violations of election law. Just days before the June candidate filing deadline, Kris attempted to place Marci Francisco and Echo Van Meteren on the general election ballot for the No Labels Kansas Party. This was done without the consent of Marci Francisco, or the chair of No Labels Kansas. Glenda Reynolds. Kris claims to have followed all relevant laws when making these nominations. These series of events could have an impact on Echo’s election chances, but to what extent remains to be seen.

Both Van Meteren and Klemp are running on standard conservative platforms, while Klemp has received much support from established conservative PACs in Kansas. Klemp has been endorsed by/had significant spending on his behalf by the Kansas Chamber PAC and Americans for Prosperity.

There are just under 50,000 registered voters in SD-5, with 18,000 (36 percent) registered Republicans eligible to vote in this primary. 16,000 unaffiliated voters have the opportunity to declare as Republicans to vote. SD-5 voted for Trump in 2020 by 7.5pts and Kelly in 2022 by 9pts.

Klemp raised $27,880 and spent $14,902 in his election efforts. He did not begin the year with any cash. Van Meteren began the year with an immense $60,000, raised an additional $18,800, and spent nearly all of it at $70,000. $50,000 of that expenditure was a loan repayment, reflecting a real spending of $20,000, much closer to Klemp. Kansas Chamber PAC has doled out almost $50,000 in support of Jeff Klemp.

Despite Van Meteren having far more liquid than Klemp, that cash is tied up in loans and Klemp appears to have more support from the party establishment and PACs. I predict Klemp will win the primary and go on to face Sen. Pittman in November.

SD-9 GOP

In this rural/exurban Douglas and Johnson County seat, incumbent Sen. Beverly Gossage (GOP) is being challenged by veteran and business owner Bryan Zesiger. Gossage has risen quickly in the Senate ranks, and now chairs the Public Health and Welfare committee. One of her prominent policy priorities is trans rights and gender-affirming care. She strongly opposes medicaid expansion, something Zesiger disagrees with. Zesiger has positioned himself as an establishment Republican, more in line with conservative rhetoric of the early 2000s rather than today’s rhetoric. Zesiger has also stated that he believes the 2020 election was not stolen, breaking with the Republican party’s stance. While it is largely irresponsible to label Zesiger as a “moderate” Republican at this point in time, it is clear that he has taken a more bipartisan approach to governance than Gossage. The winner of the primary will face Democrat Norman Mallicoat in the general election.

The candidates have attracted largely different endorsements. Gossage won the endorsement of the Kansas Farm Bureau, Kansans for Life, Kansas Rifle Association (NRA), Kansas Family Voice, and the Kansas Chamber PAC. Zesiger got the nod from the Kansas Farm Bureau, Kansas National Educators Association, the bipartisanship-promoting Kansans First, and the Kansas City Star.

SD-9 has 55,000 registered voters, with 24,500 (44.5 percent) being registered Republicans eligible to vote in the primary. 15,000 unaffiliated voters will have the option to declare as Republicans and vote in this election. SD-9 voted for Trump in 2020 by 12pts and for Kelly in 2022 by 3pts.

Gossage entered the year with $50,901, raised an additional $24,600, and spent $25,100. Zesiger started the year with $12,500, raised an additional $1,200, and spent $8,100 in his effort to unseat Gossage.

Zesiger has received many endorsements that would normally play well in this Douglas/Johnson County seat, but they hold much less weight in the primary. With no indications of a strong ground game and being outspent 3x, I predict Gossage wins reelection with a relatively safe margin.

SD-12 GOP

Incumbent Sen. Caryn Tyson (GOP) faces a challenge from laborer Stetson Kern in this Eastern Kansas district. Not much is known about Stetson Kern and his platform, and a Miami County Republic questionnaire he gave very short answers that did not indicate an obvious deviation from the Republican platform. At most, his position on Medicaid expansion appears to be more in line with the Democratic platform, but Tyson herself supports some controlled forms of Medicaid expansion. No Democrat filed in this district, but the general is contested by Libertarian Cullene Lang.

Sen. Tyson received most well-known endorsements in this race including Kansas Farm Bureau, National Federation of Independent Business, Kansas Rifle Association (NRA), and Kansas Chamber PAC. We found no notable endorsements for Kern.

SD-12 has just under 47,000 registered voters, with 26,000 (56 percent) of them being registered Republicans eligible to vote in the primary election. 12,800 unaffiliated voters will have the opportunity to declare themselves Republicans to vote in this election. SD-12 voted for Trump in 2020 by 51pts and for Schmidt in 2022 by 31pts.

Tyson entered the year with a hefty $82,870 in the bank and added an additional $35,500 in fundraising. She spent over $33,500 so far in her reelection journey. Kern filed an affidavit exempting him from filing financial reports as he expects to raise and spend less than $1,000.

Tyson is clearly ahead in this election with all major endorsements, a strong financial backing, and a clearly established campaign strategy. I predict Tyson to comfortably win her primary with around 75-80 percent of the vote.

SD-13 GOP

Not much is known about challenger Sam Owen in the SD-13 primary election. Incumbent Sen. Tim Shallenburger (GOP) faces this opposition before a waiting Democrat Austin Stapleton in the general election. Owen has stated in questionnaires his desire to raise the minimum wage, lower health care costs, and increase education funding. Shallenburger’s top priority is continuing to lower taxes due to the state’s tax surplus.

Shallenburger swept the notable endorsements including the Kansas Farm Bureau, Kansans for Life, National Federation of Independent Business, Kansas Livestock Association, Kansas Rifle Association (NRA) and Kansas Chamber PAC.

SD-13 has just under 55,000 registered voters, with 23,000 (42 percent) of them being registered Republicans eligible to vote in the primary election. 18,800 unaffiliated voters will have the opportunity to declare themselves Republicans to vote in this election. SD-13 voted for Trump in 2020 by 37pts and for Schmidt in 2022 by 21pts.

Shallenburger entered the year with $39,275 and only raised an additional $1,900. He has spent a little over $20,000 in the primary election period. Sam Owen did not raise any money, but has spent just under $1,000 of his own money on the campaign.

Shallenburger has the clear advantage in endorsements, money, and campaign infrastructure. I predict Shallenburger wins comfortably with somewhere around 80-85 percent of the vote.

SD-17 GOP

Retired Superintendent Mike Argabright and conservative activist David Schneider have filed to replace the retiring Jeff Longbine in this Geary, Lyon, and Morris Counties seat. Mike Argabright served as the Superintendent of USD 252 Southern Lyon County Schools where served for 16 years. David Schneider recently retired as a Regional Director for the group Citizens for Self-Governance, Convention of States Project, a conservative organization that has been advocating for a constitutional convention where the constitution could be considerably amended. Kansas has yet to sign on to this convention. Schneider has been campaigning against green initiatives, wokeism, and as a surrogate for Donald Trump. Argabright, meanwhile, is prioritizing economic issues and education funding. The winner of this primary will face teacher and Democrat Lillian Lingenfelter in the general election.

Endorsements have been split, showing Argabright’s establishment support versus Schneider’s right conservatism base. Argabright has received the endorsement of Kansas Livestock Association, bipartisanship-promoting Kansans First, and Kansas Chamber PAC. Schneider got the coveted nod from Kansans for Life,

SD-17 has just under 45,000 registered voters, with 18,000 (40.8 percent) of them being registered Republicans eligible to vote in the primary election. 15,700 unaffiliated voters will have the opportunity to declare themselves Republicans to vote in this election. SD-13 voted for Trump in 2020 by 16pts and for Kelly in 2022 by 5.5pts.

Neither candidate entered the year with any money in the bank. Argabright outraised Schneider over three times; $36,400 to $10,400. He similarly outspent Schneider considerably, $30,400 to $9,500.

This primary election might end up relatively close depending on campaign ground game, but I give the edge to Argabright due to his support and fundraising abilities. I would guess Argabright wins with around 60 percent of the vote.

SD-19 Dem

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SD-19 GOP

Far less heated than its Democratic primary counterpart, conservative Tyler Wible is facing moderate Cynthia Smith in the Republican primary. Smith’s campaign is marked by calls for civility in politics and condemnation of bigotry. She does not support substantive limitations on abortion, believes in Medicaid expansion, and “will not traffic in conspiracy theories.” Wible does not support Medicaid expansion, green initiatives, or promotion of reproductive healthcare. The winner of the primary will face either ShaMecha King Simms, Vic Miller, or Patrick Schmidt in the general election.

There are over 42,000 registered voters in the district, with 10,500 (25 percent) registered Republicans. Over 14,500 unaffiliated voters will have the opportunity to register with the Republican Party to vote in this election. The winner of this primary will face either Republicans Cynthia Smith or Tyler Wible in the general election.

SD-19 voted for Biden in 2020 by 31pts and for Kelly in 2022 by 47pts.

Cynthia Smith has been endorsed by the Mainstream Coalition while Wible has no notable endorsements.

Neither candidate came into the year with money in the bank. Cynthia Smith raised $20,450 for her campaign, but $20,000 was a loan from herself. She has spent $5,600 to win. Wible only loaned himself $255 out of the $1,350 he raised. He has spent $1,100 on his campaign.

Despite being the conservative candidate, Tyler Wible has neither the money nor the institutional support to win the primary. Even though she loaned herself 98 percent of her money, that’s enough for Smith to tip the scale in her favor with how small the Republican electorate is in this district. I predict Smith will win the primary with 55 percent of the vote.

SD-20 GOP

In 2023, Sen. Brenda Dietrich (GOP) cast the decisive vote to kill a bill that would immediately stop gender transitions for youth. Despite voting this year to uphold the veto, her record immediately drew a conservative challenger in Josh Powell, a former one term state representative. Powell also took issue with Dietrich’s votes against bills banning transgender women from competing in women’s sports. Powell constantly attacks the “radical left” and what he sees as wokeism. He promotes the nuclear family and strict restrictions on abortion. He is against Medicaid expansion and wants Kansas to help “secure the border.” Dietrich’s campaign focuses more on consensus building and public service. She wants to lower taxes, expand Medicaid to support hospitals, and fund special education. She recognizes the results of the “Value them Both” amendment but does believe in passing constitutional restrictions.

SD-20 has 52,000 registered voters in the district, with 23,000 (44 percent) registered Republicans. Over 14,500 unaffiliated voters will have the opportunity to register with the Republican Party to vote in this election. The winner of this primary will face Democrat Candace Ayars in the general election.

SD-20 voted for Trump in 2020 by 4pts and for Kelly in 2022 by 15pts.

Dietrich has been endorsed by Kansans for Life, Kansas Farm Bureau, Kansas Livestock Association, National Federation of Independent Business, Kansans First, and Kansas Chamber PAC. Josh Powell received the support of Kansas Family Voice.

Dietrich entered the year with a $65,000 warchest and added $32,700 in fundraising. She has spent a large $79,000 to win the primary. Powell only has $17,800 ($8,000 of his own money) and spent $12,200 on his campaign.

Conservative challengers have done historically well against moderates in Kansas, but it would be irresponsible to label Sen. Dietrich as a “moderate.” She has not caused the party enough trouble for an organized campaign to oust her. I predict she will move on to the general election with 60 percent of the vote.

SD-26 GOP

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SD-32 Dem

In a rather quiet primary election, standard Democrats Lawrence Moreno and Mike Soetaert are running for a shot at Republican Senator Larry Alley in this rural south central Kansas seat. There is not a lot of coverage on this race, but both candidates support reproductive healthcare, medical marijuana, Medicaid expansion, and workers rights.

SD-32 has 51,000 registered voters in the district, with 8,800 (17 percent) registered Democrats. Over 14,500 unaffiliated voters will have the opportunity to register with the Republican Party to vote in this election. The winner of this primary will face Republican incumbent Larry Alley in the general election.

SD-31 voted for Trump in 2020 by 45pts and for Schmidt in 2022 by 19pts.

Moreno has been endorsed by Game On, Moms Demand Action, and the Cannabis Justice Coalition. Soetaert has no notable endorsements.

Moreno started the year with $1,000 in the bank, and raised almost $12,000, of which he spent $4,700 in the primary. His fundraising primarily came from small donations. Soetaert filed an affidavit indicating he would spend less than $1,000 on his campaign.

Due to the lack of fundraising and campaigning, Moreno enters the final week of campaigning as the clear favorite. I estimate he wins with 80 percent of the vote.

SD-33 GOP

Current Senator Alicia Straub (GOP) decided against running for reelection this year. This opened a safe Republican seat that HD-112 Rep. Tory Marie Blew could not resist. John Sturn, Ellinwood School Board member, also filed for the open seat. Sturn’s campaign focuses on education reform and funding and reducing taxes without going back to the Brownback experiments. Rep. Blew has been unusually quiet on the public relations front, but has been active on the campaign trail and communicating with voters. In 2022, she was an ardent supporter of the “Value them Both” amendment, and promised to keep fighting against abortion rights in Kansas.

SD-33 has 46,000 registered voters in the district, with 29,800 (67 percent) registered Republicans. Over 10,000 unaffiliated voters will have the opportunity to register with the Republican Party to vote in this election. The winner of this primary will face Democrat Matthew Westenfeld in the general election.

SD-33 voted for Trump in 2020 by 57.5pts and for Schmidt in 2022 by 30pts.

Blew has been endorsed by Kansans for Life, Kansas Farm Bureau, Kansas Livestock Association, Kansas Rifle Association (NRA), Kansan Family Voice, and Kansas Chamber PAC. John Sturn received the support of the Kansas National Educators Association and Kansans First.

Blew entered the year with $20,700 in the bank and added an additional $26,500 in fundraising. She has spent $32,800 so far in the primary. Sturn has raised a modest $17,000 ($7,700 in a loan) and spent only $700 on his campaign at the time of writing.

Blew checks all of the boxes in this election. She has the money, base of support, and establishment endorsements. I doubt she wins with much less than 70 percent of the vote.

SD-34 GOP

Back in September 2023, incumbent Republican Senator Mark Steffen announced he would not seek reelection to a second term in Topeka. Mark Steffen drew the ire of Democrats and Republicans alike as he constantly battled with members over both parties, especially over his promotion of unusual COVID-19 public health initiatives. After announcing his retirement, HD-114 Rep. Michael Murphy and Hutchinson business executive Bob Fee filed for the seat. Both Republicans are staunch conservatives and their campaigns reflect such a platform. Both candidates invoke God as their inspiration for service, decry high property taxes, and support abortion restrictions.

SD-34 has 50,700 registered voters in the district, with 29,800 (65 percent) registered Republicans. Over 10,000 unaffiliated voters will have the opportunity to register with the Republican Party to vote in this election. The winner of this primary will face Democrat Shanna Henry in the general election.

SD-34 voted for Trump in 2020 by 40pts and for Schmidt in 2022 by 16pts.

Both candidates received similar endorsements. Rep. Murphy is endorsed by Kansans for Life. Fee has the support of Kansans for Life and Kansas Chamber PAC. Numerous prominent organizations declined to endorse in the primary rather than endorse one or both candidates.

Murphy entered the year with $1,300 in the bank and raised another $28,000. He spent $27,800 in the primary election. Fee began the year with $47,000 and raised a cool $29,500 ($7,700 in loans) in addition. He has spent $36,700 so far this year.

Kansas Chamber PAC is leaving its mark on this primary, spending $36,000 in support of Bob Fee. This alone is more than Murphy could muster on his own.

Michael Murphy is a two-term state representative, and has more grassroots support in the district. Murphy is being pushed by Steffen’s faction of the party, however, which is not particularly popular. Fee has more money, more donors, and the support of business circles, which leads me to believe he has a higher ceiling, but his donations are coming from outside of the district indicating a lack of foundational support. I think it’ll be one of the closer primaries in the state, but I expect Murphy to win with 60 percent of the vote.

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